The NBS forecast of 24 June 2025 expected real GDP growth of 1,2 % for 2025. The outturn, which the same institution reported a year later in the same table, was 0,8 %. The average nominal wage meanwhile ended at 5,7 % instead of the assumed 4,8 % — that is 0,9 pp higher, while economic growth ended 0,4 pp lower.
This text compares one forecast with its own result component by component and shows where the difference concentrated. It does not assess the quality of the NBS model, forecasts nothing of its own, and draws no conclusion from a single year about the reliability of forecasts in general.
What the NBS forecast for 2025 assumed and what came of it
Both columns of the table below come from the same table, «Základné ukazovatele ekonomického vývoja», of the same institution: the forecast column from the summer 2025 edition, discussed by the Bank Board on 24 June 2025, and the outturn column from the summer 2026 edition, discussed on 23 June 2026 (primary source Národná banka Slovenska, forecast P2Q-2025 of 24. 6. 2025).
| Indicator for 2025 | NBS forecast of 24. 6. 2025 | Outturn | Difference in pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1,2 % | 0,8 % | −0,4 |
| HICP inflation | 3,9 % | 4,2 % | +0,3 |
| Average nominal wage | 4,8 % | 5,7 % | +0,9 |
| Average real wage | 0,9 % | 1,6 % | +0,7 |
| Employment (ESA 2010) | −0,4 % | −0,1 % | +0,3 |
| Unemployment rate (LFS) | 5,3 % | 5,4 % | +0,1 |
The signs are not uniform. Economic growth fell short, but wages, inflation and employment all ended above the forecast. The year therefore did not simply turn out worse than expected; the deviations fell unevenly.
The largest gap is not in GDP but in wages
The largest deviation in the table is in the average nominal wage: 0,9 pp. The second largest is in the real wage: 0,7 pp. The difference in real GDP is −0,4 pp, that is less than half the wage deviation. For a company planning a production operation in Slovakia this distinction matters, because the two quantities enter the investment case on opposite sides.
Employment meanwhile fell by less than the forecast assumed (−0,1 % against −0,4 %), and the unemployment rate ended 0,1 pp higher at 5,4 %. The combination of faster wage growth with a smaller fall in employment means that wage costs grew on a broader base than had been assumed.
The summer 2026 NBS forecast describes household resilience as a phenomenon that persisted into the current year as well: «Prekvapila najmä odolnosť domácností, ktoré napriek prebiehajúcej konsolidácii neznížili svoje spotrebné výdavky, hoci to bolo na úkor tvorby úspor» (primary source Národná banka Slovenska, forecast P2Q-2026 of 23. 6. 2026).
“By how much was the NBS wrong?” is the wrong question
A question about the size of the error yields one figure and throws away the direction. The more useful question is which component carries the error — in 2025 the cost side, not the output side. The same institution also moved its own estimate for the next year over twelve months: in June 2025 it expected 1,6 % for 2026, and in June 2026 it gives 0,5 %, that is 1,1 pp less.
In the current summer forecast the NBS did not change the 2026 figure against the spring forecast at all — the difference is 0,0 pp. It did change inflation: by 0,1 pp for 2026, by 0,4 pp for 2027 and by 0,5 pp for 2028. An unchanged headline therefore does not correspond to an unchanged forecast (primary source Národná banka Slovenska, forecast P1Q-2026).
Two valid forecasts for 2026 and why they are not averaged
Two current official figures exist for 2026. The NBS gives 0,5 % and the Institute for Financial Policy of the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic gives 0,8 % in its forecast of June 2026 (primary source Institute for Financial Policy MF SR, Commentary 2026/5, June 2026). For 2027 the order reverses: NBS 1,9 %, IFP 1,5 %.
The methodologies of the two institutions differ and their reconciliation belongs to them, not to this publication; an average of 0,5 % and 0,8 % is nobody’s forecast. The difference is visible in inflation too, where the NBS states HICP at 4,0 % and the IFP consumer inflation at 3,9 % — two different indices, not two versions of the same figure (primary source Institute for Financial Policy MF SR, forecast published 29. 6. 2026).
That this is a longer-standing divergence is confirmed by the statement of the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic of 25 September 2025, in which the ministry said it would enquire at expert level into the reasons why the NBS estimates economic growth for 2026 at 0,8 pp below the ministry’s own estimate (primary source Ministerstvo financií SR, 25. 9. 2025). The gap then was 0,8 pp; today it is 0,3 pp.
The conclusion the figures will bear is narrow and single: in planning an entry to the Slovak market, the wage line carries more risk of error than the GDP growth line. In 2025 the wage deviation proved more than twice the growth deviation, and in the direction that raises costs.
Zdroje a dáta
Primary sources: Národná banka Slovenska — Ekonomický a menový vývoj, summer 2025, discussed by the Bank Board on 24 June 2025, spring 2026, and summer 2026, discussed on 23 June 2026; Institute for Financial Policy of the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic — Commentary 2026/5, forecast published on 29 June 2026; Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic — statement of 25 September 2025.
Own compilation: the forecast and outturn columns in the table are taken from the table Základné ukazovatele ekonomického vývoja in two editions of the same publication; the difference in percentage points is the difference between those two columns. NBS inflation is HICP and IFP inflation is consumer inflation; the figures are therefore not given in one row.
This text is a general analysis of legislation in force and does not constitute legal, tax, immigration or financial advice.